Let’s review Year 2011 in Gold Canyon Arizona real estate and also take a close up look at what happened in December 2011.
There is a lot of press reports speculating about if the market is getting better or not — read through the facts, and you decide what you think.
Residential home sales in the Gold Canyon Arizona area for December 2011 showed a typical seasonal increase in home sales for the month, over the November 2011 sales numbers. (Every year when “seasonal visitors” and “snow birds” arrive in the area, there is an uptick in sales.)
But the average price per square foot for the homes sold in December 2011 was down from the prior month (November 2011), for both “traditional” sales, as well as “distressed homes” .
But, while the average price per square foot sales prices are showing down for December 2011, if one looks at prior year history, (December 2010), statistics and facts show that the average price per square foot stats are up in December 2011 for “traditional” sales over the past year, but only by a mere few dollars. But don’t get excited – both 2010 and 2011 facts show prices down from the average price per square foot stats for 2009.
“Distressed” sales prices show down for December 2011 over the December 2010 history, but again only by a few dollars. But looking at December 2009, the average price per square foot for “distressed” homes is showing considerably down in December 2011 over the December 2009 figures.
Statistics show that the prices for Gold Canyon homes did go down during the past year. The average price of a home sold is down from the 2010 numbers. And certainly if one goes back to the December 2009 facts, the current market is down in average price of the homes sold for that year as well, both for “traditional” sales, as well as the “distressed” sales.
People read the press and then ask us all the time – “is the market getting better?” Honestly the numbers have changed so little there is nothing to be considered a new trend. When this type of information is reported by the press, it might be true in some other localized areas, but it’s not what the statistics show here in the Gold Canyon and East Phoenix Arizona Valley area. Certain categories actually show a continuing downward trend. In general the facts show more of a “yo-yo” effect than any real trend for the better — in most tracking categories the stats show up a bit one month, down a bit another – back and forth, some months by only a mere few dollars and sometimes only pennies.
The market is being driven largely by location. A house in north Phoenix might go for the asking price, while a house farther out in Queen Creek or Buckeye might sell in a short sale for half of what the owner owed.
But something to consider — while it may appear that there has been some stabilization in 2011, it may be only a temporary bottom. Those of us in the industry are aware that banks are now letting many owners miss between 24 to 36 payments before they often times finally foreclose. The volume of homes that this is happening with is thought to be huge. These homes don’t appear on any radar screens until they actually do foreclose. These potential foreclosures may have the ability to drive down prices more in the future — only time will tell.
State-wide one (1) out of every six (6) homes in the state is standing empty. Many of these homes were built to be flipped and have never seen a human inhabitant. Some market watchers still don’t believe a real recovery has started.
Is the market getting better — you decide?
December 2011 – and Year 2011 Review – Real Estate Stats
Gold Canyon Arizona at a glance
- December 2011 sales shows 42 Gold Canyon homes closed escrow during December. In November 2011 there were 28 homes closing escrow during that time period. This increase can be primarily thought to be up due to the seasonal visitors/snow-birds who come to the Gold Canyon area annually during this time frame. (Of note in December 2009 there were 52 homes sold during that time frame. So the past 2 years December’s have both seem fewer sales for the time period than in 2009.)
- Average price per square foot for sold homes in December 2011 was $96.77 – down from November 2011’s sales price averages which was $103.58. (In comparison to 2010 December facts, December in 2010 showed average price per square foot was $93.22. But December 2009 showed $103.83 — more of a yoyo than any real trend.)
- Average price of homes sold in Gold Canyon Arizona in December 2011 was $194.063, which was down from the November 2011 averages of $223,161. (December 2010’s average price of home sold was $227,484. and December 2009’s average price for homes sold was $216,632.)
- Distressed properties – of the 42 homes sold in the Gold Canyon Arizona area in December 2011, 18 of the properties sold that were “distressed”***. (For the same December time frame, in 2010, 20 of the 36 homes sold were distressed and in December 2009, 28 of the 52 homes selling in that time frame were distressed.)
- Average price per square foot for “distressed” homes sold in December 2011 was $76.67, and was down from the November 2011 average of $80.70. (For the same December time frame in 2011, the average price for “distressed” homes sold in that time period was $78.91. And in December 2009 the average price for “distressed” homes sold in that time period was $90.13. Definitely a downward trend over the the past 2 years in this category of homes.)
- Number of homes on market (in MLS) in Gold Canyon Arizona during December 2011 was 323. In November 2011 there were 325 homes listed in the MLS. (Comparing December 2010 there were 372 homes for sale in that time frame and in December 2009 there were 411 homes listed in the MLS for sale then.)
- Based on current the 323 homes on the MLS, at the current rate of home sales this is an 8 month inventory of homes. (But remember we are in the “season for snow-birds” and “seasonal visitors” and this number will change over the year and the seasons change.)
(** A “distressed” home means either a home is a “short-sale”or one that has foreclosed. A “traditional” sale means there is not a bank involved, such as a short-sale or foreclosure. A “traditional” sale is with human owners, not a financial institution. )
With the market showing no major upward or downward trends, and changes in the foreseeable future uncertain it seems — if you need to move, or need to buy, what are you waiting for… it may not significantly change in the near future?
(Real estate data taken from Phoenix Multiple Listing Service. Information is deemed accurate, but not guaranteed.)